Mostly rainly. Very slim chance of sunshine.
Mourning What We Lost
I’ve been dreading writing this season’s preview, if only because it means coming to terms with what the Red Sox have become, which means coming to terms with promises lost. If you just want a preview of this year’s team, skip down to the next section. Otherwise, let’s ride the sad train.
After the 2018 World Series victory, the future promised to be bright. After all, the Red Sox had an incredible core of young talent headlined by Mookie Betts, perhaps the best player to wear the uniform since Ted Williams (Carl Yastrzemski and Wade Boggs have voices in that conversation). Betts, Bogaerts, Devers, Benintendi, and Bradley were young, organizationally-developed players under team control.
Whether through being miserly or through a lack of foresight, the Red Sox were unable to reach a long-term deal with Betts. And so Betts is traded to the Dodgers. In 2021 I wrote that Bloom got a solid return for one year of Betts, but that he should never have had to make that trade in the first place. Between the cost of a ticket and the size of the media market, the Red Sox shouldn’t be losing generational superstars. [Side note: Bloom isn’t popular around Boston these days, and I think part of his narrative will become trading Betts for Verdugo. That isn’t fair–the star of that trade was Jeter Downs, who slashed .269/.354/.507 across 107 games at A+ in 2019. He was a legit top prospect. Why he fell apart after COVID will always be a mystery, but I doubt Bloom could have done anything to prevent it].
I could swallow it because trading Betts supposedly granted us the vaunted “financial flexibility,” which would presumably be used to retain the rest of that young core. Except that isn’t what happened. Bradley always had a questionable swing (hence his extreme hot and cold swings) and was wisely let travel to Kansas City. Benintendi went through a rough patch and was also dealt to KC. I wasn’t as big a fan of this one, but it was certainly defensible at the time. The verdict on this trade will likely be determined this season, as Josh Winckowski fights to hold onto a rotation spot (see my “Fun!/?” list below).
The vaunted “financial flexibility” made available via Betts’ departure wasn’t earmarked for Bradley or Benintendi. No, that money was for extending Xander Bogaerts and locking up Rafael Devers. The latter has been locked up, albeit at probably 30 million dollars more than they would have had to pay had they not waited until the last possible moment to get the deal done. I tend to think that fan reaction to Henry’s appearance at a winter event might have accelerated and finalized those negotiations. Good job fans. Keep booing. But, to close this point: they ended up signing Devers to a 10/313 million dollar deal–which feels like a bargain in the midst of this off-season’s drunk-fantasy-auction-with-Monopoly-money extravaganza. Had they signed this deal last off-season, they could have likely locked up Devers for something more like the 8/260 million dollar deal Nolan Arenado signed with the Rockies in 2019 (say something like 10/285 given Devers’ defensive liabilities).
I’m happy that Devers will be around for the next decade. But Bogaerts is gone. And this is unforgivable. Not that they should have matched San Diego’s 11/280 million dollar deal. That is lunacy. But negotiations should never had reached this point. Last off-season, the Red Sox signed Trevor Story to a 6 year 120 million dollar contract. I wrote last off-season that I questioned this deal for two reasons: first, Trevor Story’s road splits outside of Coors Field were quite mediocre: a .958 in the thin skies of Denver vs. a .739 on the road. For those who aren’t into stats, that’s an almost unheard of difference; the difference between being a Hall of Famer at home and a taking a trip to the Paw Sox on the road. But I noted that he is an excellent defender who immediately upgrades second base, a position in which, after the demise of Downs, they were quite thin. However, I also noted that signing Story feels like an insurance move one would make if you didn’t plan on retaining your star shortstop. And–here’s the kicker–after signing Story for 6/120, the Sox offered Bogaerts a 4/90 million dollar extension. That’s bad y’all. Had they just offered Bogaerts something like 5/120 or 6/145 in place of signing Story then he likely finishes his career in Boston.
The 1975 Red Sox thought their future was bright. After a devastating loss to the Big Red Machine, they looked to a future with Cartlon Fisk, Freddie Lynn, Jim Rice, and Dwight Evans. And due to the miserly Yawkee family, that future was never realized. Imagine the 1986 World Series with Freddie Lynn (who slashed .287/.371/.499 for Baltimore in 112 games) and Carlton Fisk (who, admittedly, had the worst season of his career in 1986. But, jeez, the 1984, 1985, 1987, and 1988 seasons were just incredible). History, it feels to me, repeats itself.
This Team Will Not Be Good, But There’s Some Fun To Be Had
Okay, on to the preview. So ZIPs projects the Red Sox to win 79 games in a loaded AL East. In his write-up, Dan Szymborksi optimistically proposes that the Red Sox could win 82 or more if they can replace Story at second base. Maybe Arroyo can finally break through or David Hamilton can hit enough to hold the role (more on Hamilton below). But–understand this dear reader–82 wins is very likely the ceiling for this team. That ZIPS projection expects 26 starts from Chris Sale, 23 starts from James Paxton (lol), and 28 starts from Corey Kluber. Dear reader–dearest reader–if you believe this will happen then I, in the words of Charles Benea, have some lovely beachfront property in Florida that I would like to sell you. Cash only.
No, this team probably can’t hit enough and certainly can’t pitch enough to compete in a division with the Yankees, Rays, Blue Jays, and Orioles. There’s a longer post I want to write about how Bloom likely took this job anticipating a fire sale in 2021. He could trade Eduardo Rodriguez, Nathan Eovaldi, JD Martinez, and Matt Barnes for soon-to-be MLB ready talent to reload for 2023 and beyond. But, surprise! The Red Sox got off to a red hot start in April that season, going 17-10 in April and 18-10 in June. The team stopped over-performing in July (13-12), but any idea of a tear-down was out of the question. Instead of selling, we made a nice acquisition (Schwarber) at the deadline and had a wonderful and miraculous win against the Yankees in the post-season. Fun!
But the general awfulness of this season’s projections is, in part, the price of that fun. Dombrowski’s terrible drafting leaves us with a minor league system with very little talent at the upper levels. Bloom has done a nice job drafting and developing young guys, and the future–say 2025 and beyond–is bright (Marcello Mayer at SS, Nick Yorke at 2B, Miguel Bleis at RF, Blaze Jordan at 1B are some of the brightest prospects). If there is fun to be had this season, and I think there might be, it will be watching some of the other young players who are either at or near the major league level. Although part of the fun will involve learning the answers to critical questions that might just as easily induce sadness rather than joy:
- Tristan Casas: Wow! What an eye. Casas has been at the top of the Red Sox prospect list for years now, largely due to his masterful command of the strike zone (hence why he is slated to lead off despite having virtually no speed… in a season in which rule changes should drastically increase the value of stolen bases… but I digress). What’s fun to watch here? Can Casas also hit for power? If he can, his ceiling might be Joey Voto, and that would be super fun! If the power doesn’t develop–and he rarely showed it in the minors–then we might be more in the line of Yandy Diaz. But, Marc, you plead, I have never heard of Yandy Diaz. Exactly–less fun! Way less fun!
- Brayan Bello: Bello starts the year on the IL with a dreaded forearm injury, often a precursor to Tommy John surgery. But–fun!–Bello is expected to be back with the Sox by mid-April after a rehab stint in Worcester. Below has incredible stuff, averaging more than 12 strikeouts per 9 innings over his minor league career. But he also tends to have no idea where the ball is going. So, question: Can Bello improve his command? If so–fun!–we might have developed our best starting pitcher since Roger Clemens. Yeah, that was a long time ago. If control continues to elude him then we might have something more along the lines of Ubaldo Jimenez. Way less fun!
- Josh Winckowski: As I noted earlier, Winckowski is the best asset we received in the Benintendi trade. He made his debut last year at age 24 and, um, really failed to impress. Let’s look at a picture:
Winckowski’s AA and AAA numbers with Boston are significantly better than his major league numbers. At AA and AAA he struck out almost 9 batters per nine innings while walking about 2.7.
- Wow! Those AAA numbers are really fun! In many ways, Winckowski is the opposite of Bello–he has outstanding command and solid movement, but lacks dominant velocity. As those numbers in 70 innings last season who, he isn’t likely to miss a lot of bats. But he should be able to lower the walk rate and avoid hard contact. So, question: can Winckowski be good? Fun?
- Adam Duvall: Not a prospect. But there’s certainly questions about Duvall. At his best, he’s been an All-Star who hits home runs to the moon. But, um, CF? While a good corner outfielder, that seems kind of shaky. Especially at age 35. And he tends to strike out a lot. Like, A LOT. But, questions: Can he actually play CF? Or will this provide comic relief? And can he hit 30+ home runs again (he’s done it three times)? Or is this one of those 16 home run seasons (which he’s done 3 times). Does he strike out more than 30% of the time (3 times)? Or less than 27.45 (4 times). So many kinda maybe sorta oh-my-god-I-am-digging-here “fun” questions!
- Ceddanne Rafaela: Unless you are an incredibly die-hard Red Sox fan, you likely have never heard of Rafaela. He wasn’t even on Fangraphs’ 2022 Top 51 Red Sox prospects list. But, after moving from SS to CF last season in the minors, and developing from a really mediocre minor league hitter to a monster in A+ and AA last season, Rafaela is likely to be near the top of Red Sox prospect lists this year. I didn’t include him in the list of future stars above simply because it seems inevitable that he will debut in 2022 given our lack of depth at center-field (see the Duvall questions above–dear reader, I am pessimistic about Duvall, but trying so hard to find some fun!). Rafaela might not hit at the major league level, but he will be an incredible defensive center-fielder the first day he start out there. Highlight catches are fun! Ask Jackie Bradley!
- David Hamilton: Time runs short on me, so I have to wrap this up. David Hamilton was the real return in the Hunter Renfroe trade last off-season. Recall that the trade also reunited the Sox with Jackie Bradley and his lack of production and onerous salary. Hamilton was the reward for freeing Kansas City from paying Bradley. What did we get? An “overage” prospect who had modest but acceptable slash lines for a middle infielder in A+ and AA ball. What? That doesn’t sound fun. Well dear reader, he has also stolen 122 bases in two minor league seasons (220 total games). HA! FUN! Listen, as is obvious, I don’t think this team has any chance to compete in 2023. And I don’t think Christian Arroyo is the answer at second base. He’s a nice platoon player, but probably not a significant every day contributor. And this Red Sox team has virtually no team speed. Please, please, please, promote Hamilton and let him hit 9th every day. Upon his arrival, he will be the fastest player we have ever seen in a Red Sox uniform. In a season that promises to be frustration (you can already hear sadness in Joe Castiglione’s voice) give us a Willie Mays Hayes. I don’t care if he will hit for shit. Stolen bases are fun!
There’s some other potential fun things: Can Garrett Whitlock develop into a starter? can Bobby Dalbec ever learn to hit a high fastball? Can Yoshida hit enough to play corner outfield in MLB (I am optimistic about this one!)? Will this be the year that Jansen’s arm just falls off in the middle of an inning? But, alas, I have run out of time for this piece, and so “Publish” I will hit.
Wrapping Up
So. A quick wrap up. The Sox are largely a conglomeration of contracts meant to show fans that ownership is willing to spend money. But those contracts aren’t going to add up to a lot of wins, and the players getting paid aren’t, by and large, the players we want to watch in a Boston uniform. My guess is that this team wins around 75 games, below the ZIPS projection, in part because I expect that they will do their best to sell any viable players at the deadline this year. A repeat of 2021 feels very, very unlikely.
But there’s a lot of potential fun to be had watching this team this year, so long as you don’t look too closely at the final score of the standings.
(And, Nick, you are welcome).
