Yes I’m Still Complaining about Mookie
So tomorrow’s opening day. Ho hum. I find it a bit difficult to be excited about this 2021 Red Sox team. Frankly, I’m still mourning the loss of Mookie Betts, whose trade feels to me like the 21st century equivalent to the sale of Ruth. And while I acknowledge that the return Bloom got for Mookie–Verdugo and Downs–is a nice return, he should have never been forced to trade him in the first place. The Red Sox should have recognized Betts’ value earlier in the form of a 10/300 million dollar contract (way before Machado, a lesser player, actually go that deal). After the Machado and Harper signings, the Sox could have offered Mookie 10/350. Instead, they signed Chris Sale to what seems like a potentially disastrous extension (more on that below) and traded one of the best players of the 21st century.
Overall, it is quite hard to predict what the Sox will be in 2021. Look at the wide difference between two major projection systems: Fangraphs’s Depth Charts and Dan Szymborski’s ZIPs. The former (rather surprisingly) projected the Red Sox to win 86 games–three more than the Rays–and to have a 47% chance to make the playoffs. The latter, which factors in injuries more and thus evaluates depth, puts the Sox at 79-83. Symborski notes that, in addition to questioning the health of, say, Sale and Rodriguez, ZIPs also doubts a projected bounceback season for JD Ramirez. And the lack of developed prospects means the Sox are really in trouble if everyday players miss any extended amount of time. I tend to agree with Szymborski; the lack of pitching and lack of depth foretells a sub .500 season.
Sale on Fire or Fire Sale
For me the zeitgeist of the 2021 season will be the health of Chris Sale. If Sale returns in mid-June and his velocity (at the very least) looks something comparable to his career norms (his avg fastball velocity with the Red Sox is 94.1mph, though that includes a career low 93.2 in his injury plagued 2019) then the Red Sox would probably consider themselves real contenders. As I see it, this leads to a chain of consequences: they likely resign Eduardo Rodriguez, though given his injury history it is hard to project what that contract might look like. With a good year, Rodriguez might get a deal in the neighborhood of Zack Wheeler’s 5/118 with the Phillies. A less good year might put him in Jake Odorizzi purgatory. But I digress. A healthy Chris Sale probably also leads to a Devers extension and makes it more likely that the Sox can either entice Bogaerts to opt-in or sign him to a longer extension. Whether these are good things–given those players’ defensive deficiencies at their current positions– is another question. But, in short, a healthy Sale likely means the Red Sox consider themselves a contender. We spend the next three years watching this team chase wild card spots.
But if Sale doesn’t look like Sale, then I’m guessing you’ll see a fire sale at this year’s trade deadline. The Sox would certainly trade Rodriguez. A few years back Marcus Stroman, whose career numbers are similar to Rodriguez’s, landed Toronto two top-ten organizational prospects Granted, that was from the ole LOL Mets, and Stroman had one additional year of team control. If we look at 2020 trade deadline deals, there’s less reason for optimism (especially if Rodriguez isn’t having a good year)–Mike Minor returned two PTBNLs and Robbie Ray returned a non-prospect. One can figure Rodriguez would be worth either one solid prospect (say in the 10-12 range) or 2-3 lottery tickets. The Sox farm can use all the prospects it can get.
If Sale isn’t Sale, I’d also bet that the Sox would likely move on from Xander Bogaerts, who has an opt-out clause after the 2022 season. By WAR, Bogaerts has been one of the most consistent and productive infielders in baseball over the past 5+ seasons. Nevermind that his defensive numbers at SS are among the worst at the position… he can hit. It is a toss up whether he would actually opt out of the 3/60 left on his contract–players over 30 haven’t fared well in free agency lately. If Sale isn’t Sale, then it seems less likely he would stay with the Red Sox, and makes sense to deal him for a few quality prospects that could contribute to the next competitive window (likely 2025 after Sale’s contract expires).
The biggest question mark for me is what the Sox will do with Devers. And, um, what is Devers? Is he a generational offensive talent? Or is he a slightly better version of Travis Shaw? For the record, Devers career OPS is .830 and Shaw’s is a .773 (and Devers is fueled by one outlier season). I tend to think he’s better than that career OPS shows, even if he might never again replicate his amazing 2019 season. But his defense is terrible. I cannot believe he stays at third base much longer, especially for an analytically savvy GM like Bloom. Trading Devers, with two years of control after 2021, would net a massive return. As much as I’d hate to see it, trading Devers is likely the fastest path to rebuilding a competitive team.
The Sox have a few other assets they could move, like Matt Barnes, if they decide to tear it all down. Given the lack of depth in the farm, outside of a few prospects who figure to be contributors more than superstars, it would might make sense to tear it down. But, as I said above, I think it all comes down to what Sale looks like when he returns; the Red Sox will have to make a decision on Rodriguez at this year’s deadline, and it makes no sense to keep him if this team isn’t going to compete for championships in 2022 and 2023. And if this is the path the team follows, it is likely we don’t see any attempt at playoff baseball for at least 3 years. Honestly, I’m not sure what long-term path I’d prefer.
I Guess the 2021 Team Isn’t Entirely Terrible?
I opened writing a few paragraphs about the hypothetical future of the team because the impending reality is, um, pretty bad, especially the rotation. I like Rodriguez, and Eovaldi’s extension has gone better than I anticipated. But the rest of this rotation? Phew. I realized the Red Sox were giving up on the 2021 season when I saw they resigned Martin Perez. Nick Pivetta was so bad that the Phillies got rid of him. It has been six years since Garrett Richards managed to pitch more than 76 innings in a season (and he likely would have been cut if not for Rodriguez missing the start of the season). Tanner Houck, who threw 17 good innings at the end of 2020, is projected by virtually every major system (The Bat, Zips, Depth Charts, Steamer) to have an ERA over 5.00. Beyond the starters, they sport a slightly improved bullpen, although I can’t feign too much enthusiasm when both closer options walk more than 5 batters per nine innings. It doesn’t matter if the Sox have made some offensive improvements when you have a pitching staff this bad.
And, yes, the Sox do have an intriguing offense. Bogaerts is most certainly the best player on the team, and I *think* Devers will look more like the 2019 MVP caliber player than what we saw last year. Verdugo had a great 2020, and here’s to hoping he can repeat that in 2021 (fingers crossed). I really, really want to believe that JD Martinez didn’t disintegrate in the 2019 off-season. Bobby Dalbec scared me coming into spring training, given his 42.4% k rate and .394 BABIP last season; but he was excellent in spring training, and I’m now authentically curious to see what he looks like in the regular season. Franchy Cordero is a sort-of-high-upside-no-longer-prospect who certainly has the power if he can tame his career 35% k rate. Hunter Renfroe should probably be a platoon player, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him lose the starting job when (or if?) Danny Santana is healthy. I’d have rather held onto Benintendi rather than sell so low and replaced him with that trifecta, but if the Sox were willing to give up on him I am going to assume they had their reasons. A bounceback seems unlikely. I think Kike Hernandez was a smart pick up given his versatility–it makes sense to have a player who can fill gaps in the roster on a team that plans to test out a lot of 45-50 grade prospects over the next few years. But he shouldn’t be the starting CF. Especially when Bradley went to KC for 3/27 and the Sox are about 20 million under the cap.
There’s probably not a lot of talent coming up from the farm this year. The brightest star is Tristan Casas, who has crushed the ball in the lower minors, but who also lives off fastballs and had a 28% k rate in A+ in 2019. I’m more interested in Casas’ AA season than I am in how the Red Sox do this year. If he can realize his upside, then we likely have a middle of the order superstar. Jeter Downs figures to be a quality MLB second baseman, but likely isn’t more than that (say a .270/.320/.420 kind of player). On the surface, Jarred Duran’s minor league numbers look impressive–but he’s also had a minor league BABIP of about .440. In 2019, in a 350+ PA sample at AA, he hit .250/.309/.325. Good thing he can play defense. These are the kinds of players that can top-off a good team, but there’s not enough there to constitute the core of a winning one. So either the veterans, led by Sale, regain their previous forms, or we ride the train to rebuildville.
Final Prediction
As I said above, I’m not too optimistic about this season, especially given our reliance on some players who have historically struggled with injuries and lack of depth/prospects. I’m thinking 77-85 sounds about right. All eyes on Sale.
