Yes! Another baseball season. Last year was better than I expected–Rick Porcello’s turn around and the early emergence of Steven Wright gave the Sox a deeper rotation than we might have excepted (even if David Price’s performance was something of a disappointment). While the Sox might be missing Big Papi, they still look solid offensively going into 2017. And, even if Price doesn’t throw a pitch this season, the starting rotation looks better than it did a year ago thanks to the acquisition of Chris Sale.
I’ll Miss Papi
It is cliche but I’m going to miss Papi. For nearly the last decade, I was able to catch 2-3 Sox games a year in Tampa. There was a silence, an energy, an anticipation when Papi stepped up to the plate. For a few at bats a night, he changed the atmosphere of a stadium. And I really think that he was a symbol of everything great about professional sports. Boston is his fucking city. And it always will be.
Sale vs. Moncada
This is a fascinating trade. I admit that I was a Epstein/Cherington guy, and believe in the strategy that a team should grow as many position players as possible in order to invest free agent money in pitching. But 3 years of Chris Sale at an average of 11 per season is an unbelievable steal in this market. And, speaking of this market, there wasn’t an ace pitcher in sight this off-season (the closest thing was Rich Hill, who will get paid twice what Sale will make over the next three years).
But I will go on record that I think Moncada is a generational player–a guy who could go 30/30 and put up a .380 plus OBP (I’m less sure he can sustain a .280+ BA, given that he tends to swing and miss, but he has demonstrated a great batting eye in the minors and generally doesn’t chase balls).
I think the White Sox probably won this trade, because I think Kopech will at least develop into an elite reliever. But, as a friend said, if Sale helps win a title in the next three years, then the trade will be worth it. If he doesn’t, and if Moncada does become a Cory Seager/Manny Machado level player, then Dombrowski will get trashed for this one.
Why is Drew Pomeranz Still on this Team?
Again, I’m a fan of prospects, but I recognize when a market deficiency calls for trading them. But I’m not a big fan of trading prospects when you could just spend money. And I’m certainly not a fan of trading prospects for a player who is having the proverbial “one career year” in a pitcher’s park with a history of injury. And said player is having said career year by throwing an inordinate amount of curve balls (a la Rich Hill).
And you know what I’m really not a fan of? When said pitcher turns out to be injured.
And you know what drives me batshit crazy? When MLB finds out that the Padres lied to your team and misrepresented a player’s health and offers you an opportunity to reverse the trade but your team says “nah, we’re good giving up one of the best pitching prospects in baseball for 3 years of a guy who is mediocre, injury-prone, and actually fucking injured. Let’s do that.” For. Fuck’s. Sake.
At this point it won’t even matter to me if Anderson Espinoza turns out to be a bust (which I don’t think he will–at worst he’s an Edison Volquez type starter or a Betances style reliever–18 year olds who have a 2.86 k/bb ratio in A ball don’t often flame out). Sigh.
The AL East is Weird this Year
How good is the AL East? That’s a really tough question to answer. Boston’s the clear favorite–but who is the second best team? Can the Rays pitchers stay healthy? Can they score any runs? Can the Orioles starters pitch enough to keep them in games? After Machado, do they have another bat (will Trumbo be the next Davis, can Davis be the good Davis again?)? Can the Yankees pitch? (probably not) Are their youngsters for real? What will Toronto’s offense look like without Edwin? I do think the Jays rotation is great, so they’re my pick for second.
My point is that I think that any of these teams could win 90 games if everything breaks right. But they could just as easily win 80 games. And, in the Yankees and Orioles cases, one injury or subpar pitching means they could win 70 games. I can’t think of another division with that much volatility. It should be a fun ride.
Some Predictions
Division winners:
- AL East: Red Sox
- AL Central: Indians (Adding Edwin to this team? Crazy)
- Al West: Rangers
- AL Wild Cards: Seattle, Toronto
- NL East: Mets
- NL Central: Cubs
- NL West: Dodgers
- NL Wild Cards: Cardinals, Rockies
I think the Rockies might actually be able to pitch this season. And, hey, there’s too much chalk up there–I needed one odd ball projection.
Awards:
- AL MVP: Donaldson (I just don’t think they’ll give it to Trout two years in a row if that team stinks)
- AL Cy Young: Sale (he’ll have the run support for wins, an improved defense, and improved personal investment via playing for a winning team)
- Al ROY: Moncada (comes up in early May, hits .265/.365/.495 with 20 steals and 15 homers)
- NL MVP: Harper
- NL Cy Young: Kershaw
- NY ROY: Swanson
