On the eve of opening day here’s my annual post on the upcoming season.
A Solid Offseason
Coming into the offseason I had three realistic hopes:
- That the Sox wouldn’t trade Michael Chavis. He’s the only offensive prospect in the system who could make an impact during this window of contention. And, perhaps some will disagree, we need a third baseman. More on this below.
- Don’t sign Eric Hosmer. Because Dombrowski doesn’t traditionally value defense (hi Eduardo Nunez!), I wasn’t too concerned about this (and advanced numbers suggest–gold gloves be damned–that Hosmer isn’t actually a great defender). Hosmer is an ok player, and we needed a first baseman (sort of, see below), but Moreland, Duda, Morrison, etc. all presented much more efficient options.
- Sign JD Martinez. Even though I think the Sox offense was pretty unlucky last season, and destined to be better (full season of Devers), they needed to replace JD Martinez. And they needed to make sure Hanley doesn’t get the 450 or so plate appearances he needs to trigger a 2019 vesting option. Adding a likely 300/400/500 guy to an already potent lineup is what they needed to do. We’ve got a two season championship window. Let’s not waste it by funnelling Ramirez at bats at DH.
The Sox went 3/3. Can’t complain. Given how the offseason played out, I wouldn’t have minded a Lance Lynn signing. But we got the big bat, avoided the big bust, and still have a great prospect in the system.
This Offense is Great
Much has been made of the Yankees offense this offseason. Truly, it is an impressive collection of power hitters and has a realistic chance of breaking the record for team HR’s in a season (the current record is 264 by the 1997 Mariners). But I think people are undervaluing the Red Sox offense. Last season saw a number of quirky, subpar performances. Betts’ season stands out, since his hard hit rates were actually better than those in his 2016 season. Put simply, he was really unlucky. There is no reason to think, in his age 25 season, that he can’t be better than he was in 2016.
Betts’ season is a representative anecdote for the whole Red Sox offense last year. Compare average OPS+ from 2015 and 2016 to 2017 for the following regulars:
- Betts: 125 / 108
- Bradley: 118 / 89
- Pedroia: 115 / 101
- Bogaerts: 108 / 95
That’s about a 18% collective drop in production. So, before they make a move, we can figure that they will regress to the mean and be about 18% better than they were last season. To that, add a full season of Devers and even better expected production from Benintendi. Nunez might be a questionable fielder, but he can hit (at least until Pedroia returns?). And, of course, new addition JD is a beast. In short: this team can hit.
Sale and Pray for Rain
Or at least pray for health. I’ve got some concerns about this rotation. David Price has had a great spring, and is saying all the right things, but the forearm issues he experienced last season don’t just go away. I’m really hoping Cora will monitor his innings and pitches (he should never pitch beyond 6 innings or 100 pitches). Best case, he’s Tanaka, who was able to avoid Tommy John and pitch for a few seasons. But, man, it is going to be stressful waiting to see if he can survive a season.
Speaking of Cora, I also hope he limits Sale’s innings. I was ambivalent about Farrell’s firing–I thought he did a good job getting this team to back-to-back pennants. But he did grind Sale into the ground. Sale has a history of late-season fatigue. I hope Cora channels a little Gregg Popovich and limits Sale early in the year so he is in peak form in October.
The rest of this rotation could feature in an Alka-Selzer commercial. Porcello? Ugh. I hope he gives up on throwing the high four-seam fastball. His Cy Young season was perfect timing–he started surprising hitters up in the zone when they were locked in on looking for low pitches. Guess what–the league has caught up to that strategy. The launch angle revolution has A LOT of hitters looking to swing at balls up in the zone. Porcello is fooling no one. Go back to hammering the bottom of the zone with the two-seamer and just be a productive, if mediocre, ground baller. Please. Pomeranz already has forearm issues. As with Price, those don’t just go away. But Pomeranz survived last season, so maybe he can survive one more? Eduardo Rodriguez can’t stay healthy, and is inconsistent even when he is. Steven Wright only managed to pitch 5 games last season. Hector Valesquez doesn’t look like a guy who should be pitching playoff innings.
But there is Brian Johnson. I’m pulling for Johnson. I don’t think he can be an all-star, but I do think he can give us 160+ innings and a 4.00 ERA. That isn’t great, but, given our lack of organizational depth, it is valuable. This is an issue with a Dombrowski team–he trades away so many lower level prospects that his organizations don’t even have replacement level talent to draw upon. If we are going to win the division, then we need guys like Johnson to perform.
We Have Four First Basemen and No Third Baseman
A bit of a hot take here. Sure Devers is going to play third. But I’ve listened to enough Spring Training games to know that Devers can’t play third. You can hear it in Castiglione’s voice every time he botches a tag or misses a grounder. It is going to be ugly. Dombrowski is the guy who left Miguel Cabrera at 3B for years–even as he assembled a staff of ground ball pitchers. As I said above, defense isn’t his thing. But I think Devers might be a bad enough defender that we are talking about him at first base by next season. I also think he can hit enough that we won’t care where he plays.
The problem is that we have a pile of first basemen. Moreland is signed for two years. Sam Travis had another incredible Spring and might be the best hitter of the bunch. And then there’s Hanley. Fucking Hanley.
So Hanley has been on the TB12 program all offseason and I’m supposed to believe he won’t be another pile of useless this season. OK, I sound mean. I liked the Hanley signing. Unlike Pablo, he was a proven offensive producer and a great athlete. He has had a few rough injuries during his time here. But Hanley is 450 plate appearances away from triggering a 2019 option. THAT CANNOT HAPPEN. Sam Travis is probably a better hitter right now. Moreland is a much better defender. I don’t care how Cora does it, but I don’t want to see Hanley anywhere near that option. My guess is that Dombrowski doesn’t either, and that’s why he resigned Moreland, so the Red Sox have a clear argument for limiting Hanley’s playing time. Because the Sox are in a tricky position–in the past the player’s union has threatened to sue if a team seems to be finagling things to avoid triggering a vesting option. The tacit agreement is that a player with a vesting option gets to play unless there is an injury. Hanley is healthy, but he’s also bad.
Of course, there is the possibility that the TB12 thing works some magic and Hanley hits. Honestly, I’m hoping that doesn’t happen, because I would rather throw Hanley’s option money at a starting pitcher next season–in our last season that the Killer B’s and Sale are under contract.
Eventually, I’d like to see Chavis get a shot at third base and Devers moved to first base. Travis could get at bats against lefties at DH, with Martinez moving into LF and Benintendi and Bradley platooning CF. But I’ll be paying close attention to Dever’s defense this season.
Red Sox Prediction
I’m going to go on a limb and argue that the Sox win 95 games (fewer than last season) and win the division. Yes the Yankees have improved their team, but they also have rotation/injury concerns. If Price is healthy, then the Sox have a clearly better rotation. I think the Blue Jays are a better team–they will cut into the Red Sox/Yankee win totals. I also think the Rays might be better. Yes, they traded away some “big names,” but they got solid returns and made a few smart signings (Carlos Gomez for one year, 4 million might be the steal of the offseason). The Orioles… are terrible. UGH, that pitching staff. I’ll predict that the Sox get 30 starts from Price, 30 HR’s from Betts, and win the AL East by one game over the Yanks.
Other Predictions
Winners:
- AL East: Red Sox
- AL Central: Indians
- AL West: Astros
- Wild Card: Yankees
- Wild Card: Twins
Yup, straight chalk. I wanted to pick the Twins to win the central, but I think Cleveland is just too talented. The Twins are a lot better, though, and I think they will edge out the Angels for that final WC spot. I could also see the Blue Jays making a run if Aaron Sanchez stays healthy.
- NL East: Nationals
- NL Central: Brewers
- NL West: Dodgers
- Wild Card: Cubs
- Wild Card: Phillies
The Cubs have an amazing offense, but I’m not necessarily sold on the rotation. I mean, in Theo we Trust, but maybe not trust enough to win the division. I think the Phillies are a bit like the Twins–they are a non-terrible team in a really terrible division. There’s some hope for the Mets and the Braves (more than, say, for the Royals and the White Sox), but the Marlins are obviously terrible (even worse that the Tigers?). So I could see a competent team in that division grinding out 89 wins and winning the second WC. I suppose the Cardinals are good. There’s also the Diamondbacks. Before Bumgardner’s injury,
I thought the Giants’ veterans committee might be able to put together some vintage seasons and steal a WC spot. Now that seems highly unlikely.
